In a Hidden-Markov Model where there is fair die and a loaded die (with Prob(head)=1/3, Prob(Tail)=2/3) and the outcome was, 10, Heads and , 10, tails The most reasonable(Bayesian-Laplace style not ML) estimate for the probability of using the fair die is 2863343001597125 ---------------- 4873041614471168 that in floating point is, 0.5875884567 In a Hidden-Markov Model where there is fair die and a loaded die (with Prob(head)=1/3, Prob(Tail)=2/3) and the outcome was, 20, Heads and , 20, tails The most reasonable(Bayesian-Laplace style not ML) estimate for the probability of using the fair die is 327381605443283609260043381137 ------------------------------ 500237630717560914135201349632 that in floating point is, 0.6544521750 In a Hidden-Markov Model where there is fair die and a loaded die (with Prob(head)=1/3, Prob(Tail)=2/3) and the outcome was, 30, Heads and , 30, tails The most reasonable(Bayesian-Laplace style not ML) estimate for the probability of using the fair die is 12792251351728996089211427953540765767352372363 ----------------------------------------------- 18197283968799193634658020753335072511875874816 that in floating point is, 0.7029758602 In a Hidden-Markov Model where there is fair die and a loaded die (with Prob(head)=1/3, Prob(Tail)=2/3) and the outcome was, 40, Heads and , 40, tails The most reasonable(Bayesian-Laplace style not ML) estimate for the probability of using the fair die is 197442711694271771810537484166464324867464893948112053755137411 --------------------------------------------------------------- 267513351741818722858367094244055284106004524619103095033430016 that in floating point is, 0.7380667560 In a Hidden-Markov Model where there is fair die and a loaded die (with Prob(head)=1/3, Prob(Tail)=2/3) and the outcome was, 50, Heads and , 50, tails The most reasonable(Bayesian-Laplace style not ML) estimate for the probability of using the fair die is 179971448156000456555254178467389100643966216843242522316883872508528795235 / / / 235556526962676761530958292908591768503738161606911513989651378226904170496 that in floating point is, 0.7640265820 This took, 29.037, seconds